Are supermarkets price-gouging customers? The answer may be more complicated than it seems

Given the high prices people are paying, supermarket chains aren't super popular with the Australian public right now.

And Woolworths chief executive Brad Banducci has been copping a bit of heat.

"I've personally received over 3,000 emails — you know I've tried to read and skim most of them but you could imagine I couldn't respond directly to them," Mr Banducci told ABC's AM program. 

He's under fire following the decision by Woolworths not to sell Australia Day merchandise this year.

But there's also growing community frustration and concern shoppers are paying unnecessarily high prices for basic everyday items.

Consumer advocacy group CHOICE follows the situation closely.

"Our recent national survey asked consumers what they thought of the prices being charged by major supermarkets, and 60 per cent of people told us they believe the increases seen at Coles and Woolworths are not simply due to higher costs and that Coles and Woolies are making a lot of money from the price increases we see at the check-out."

It's clear we're all paying more at the check-out, but are the big companies price-gouging shoppers?

That is, marking up prices well above costs?

Several inquiries launched into price-gouging 

The major supermarket chains are facing a number of inquiries to work out just that. The biggest one is a government inquiry being led by former cabinet minister Craig Emerson.

Former ACCC chair Allan Fels has already kicked off another inquiry in conjunction with the Australian Council of Trade Unions. 

"Well across the board there are some areas — when I report back — (that) will represent relatively clear price-gouging in the retail," Professor Fels said.

"I'm just at the stage where all I can say is that there's quite a case to answer."

For example, Professor Fels says Woolworths' earnings on food rose six per cent in 2023, well up from 4.7 per cent in 2019.

Coles' profit margin has also risen from 3.8 per cent in 2019 to 4.8 per cent in 2023.

But the ACCC needs the green light from the government to comb through both the public accounts and the ones the supermarket chains keep to themselves to definitively call out "price-gouging", Professor Fels says. 

"You also have to know what costs they are incurring, what's happening in the supply chains, say from the farmer through to the plate," he said. 

"Only the ACCC has the legal powers, and also the capability and staff to get the answers to those questions." 

Treasurer Jim Chalmers told PM the government was "in ongoing discussions with the ACCC about what further monitoring or other actions might be necessary". 

"If we can do more, we'll obviously consider it," he said in the statement. 

"We have continued to be involved in discussions with the government regarding any role they may ask the ACCC to take up in this area," an ACCC spokesperson added. 

But what's happening on the supermarket floor?

Woolworths CEO Brad Banducci says the prices of fruit and veggies are actually falling.

And this is how he explains higher prices for meat.

"We buy directly where we can from farmers, and we try to smooth out the price that they get so they can plan and manage their business effectively," he said. 

"So there is a lead and lag time in meat on price movements.

"That said you have seen material price reductions in meat in the last couple of months."

Andrew Page is a professional investor and runs a private online investment club.

He says it's clear the prices of some items in the supermarkets are lower than a year ago, while others are much higher.

"Without a doubt that's the case.

"But just because we know net [profit] margin haven't changed overall too much there are other areas where they would have absolutely seen a reduction in costs.

"It's the mix that matters."

Mr Page said the method for determining possible price-gouging was "quite scientific". 

"There's a lot of data science that goes into trying to work all this stuff out," he said. 

"So yes, in particular areas [price -gouging exists], in aggregate, at least from what the numbers are telling us, not so much," he said.

'They're not charitable organisations'

Mr Page says supermarkets can get away with gouging on certain products due to a lack of competition.

"If you have the ability to pass on higher costs, you would do it," he said. 

"In fact, you would probably say it's the duty of the board and senior executives to absolutely do that.

"They're not charitable organisations, so they will do it.

"The only thing that would force them not to do that is if someone else in the market was saying actually we are happy to take a lower margin and as a result of that we will capture market share."

Professor Fels says shoppers in countries with more supermarket competition do actually experience lower prices.

He's also aware of two "Aldi-type" supermarket chains who wish to set-up shop in Australia but face barriers, like securing physical space in big shopping centres.

"We need to constantly watch that sort of thing, watch small takeovers by retailers, have a stricter competition law," he said. 

Professor Fels will report back to the public in the first two weeks of February.

The government says the recommendations of the Emerson review will be implemented as part of a broader package of reforms to the Food and Grocery Code of Conduct.