Whatever happened to the revolution?
Just as stock markets are surging to new records and property is shrugging aside the impact of more than a dozen rate hikes on the hop, those betting on a bold, new carbon free future are nursing huge losses.
Two years ago, the race began in earnest to nail down global supplies of critical minerals as the world embraced emissions reduction targets that eventually would see the phase out of fossil fuels and a shift towards the electrification of the global economy.
It was a race turbo-charged by an increasingly polarised geo-political environment that pitted America against China, the biggest producer and processor of critical minerals and a domination of battery production.
Lithium prices soared as the US embarked upon a hurried program to shore up supplies of the key battery production component in an effort to reduce reliance upon China. And it wasn't just lithium.
Rare earth prices also shot for the moon along with more traditional metals such as nickel, which also is crucial to manufacturing electric vehicle battery components.
Even rival technologies, particularly hydrogen, found themselves in hot demand as big investors threw billions of dollars into what they believed would be the dominant green energy technology by the next decade.
It was a boom that promised fabulous riches for countries with large deposits of these raw materials. It just so happened that Australia found itself, once again, the lucky country with bountiful supplies.
But the recent boom looks to have been something of a bubble, yet another example where enthusiasm and expectations overrode reality. Suddenly, the prices for each of these materials has unravelled in spectacular style.
While the long-term future for some of these materials remains solid, there could well be some high profile casualties from the recent madness.
It's been a common story in resources for centuries. A sudden price hike based upon forecasts of huge demand feeds through to a massive lift in exploration and production until suddenly, everyone realises there's a glut.
It seemed like a sure bet at the time
The dire announcements have been coming thick and fast.
Nickel projects that only recently were given the green light have been put on hold while the value of existing mines are being written down.
Lithium miners, meanwhile, are in a world of pain with many explorers and junior operators facing the prospect either of collapse or the task of looking for something else.
Even established, large scale operators like Liontown and Azure — both of which now are within the orbit of Gina Rinehart — are feeling the heat. Both have been beaten up by investors who have been spooked by the sudden collapse in the price of the raw material as the chart below for lithium carbonate prices graphically illustrates.
Mrs Rinehart late last year built a 19.9 per cent stake in Liontown which she used to thwart a $6.6 billion takeover bid from American giant Albermarle.
While that left Liontown scrambling to raise cash to independently fund development of its massive Kathleen Valley lithium deposit, a banking syndicate including Australia's big four quickly rode to the rescue with a $760 million finance package.
On Monday, however, that financing was pulled, sending Liontown's share price tumbling 21 per cent. At just 94c, it is way below the $3 a share Mrs Rinehart paid last year for the stock, leaving the company's fate and its future in her hands.
Meanwhile, nickel prices this week hit their lowest levels in three years, having halved in the past 12 months, prompting a wave of shutdowns and curtailed expansion plans.
In response to the forecasts of higher demand, Indonesia – with the help of Chinese investment –dramatically increased production, sending prices crashing.
One of the most prominent victims is another iron ore magnate, Andrew Forrest. Just six months ago, his private company Wyloo splashed out $760 million for three mines near Kambalda in Western Australia. This week, he decided to shut them.
The nickel collapse has threatened the viability of BHP's Western Australian nickel operations and just a month ago another producer, Panoramic Resources, was put into the hands of administrators.
Hydrogen and hot air
For the past three years, an intriguing battle of the billionaires has been playing on high rotation in our very own backyard.
Andrew Forrest planted himself firmly in the green hydrogen camp and fought a pitched battle for control of a massive solar farm from Mike Cannon-Brookes. He also took every opportunity to swipe at Elon Musk over the direction he has taken with batteries and electric vehicles.
Hydrogen is made from water, can be used to power vehicles and all manner of machinery with steam as its main emission. But it can be expensive to produce and unless that process is powered by green energy, it is not environmentally sound.
Worse, many hydrogen projects have fallen victim to bubble-mania and several high profile US launches, such as Nikola Motors and Hyzon, have brought the sector into disrepute for unethical and illegal practices.
Even traditional hydrogen based operators, which boomed in the wake of the new entrants in a high risk low interest rate environment, have seen their boom time stock prices under pressure.
And now for the good news
Depending on which database you source, electric vehicle sales and ownership are soaring, jumping around 49 per cent in the first half of last year.
Most major automobile manufacturers either have EVs in production or plan to expand their range and it is estimated existing producers will account for about 70 per cent of the total market by the end of the decade.
That alone gives an indication that demand for critical minerals will continue to rise. But the exorbitant prices for raw materials witnessed in recent times is unlikely to be repeated.
The fringe players, many of which either had high cost projects or none at all, are likely to disappear, leaving the door open for more stable investors to enter the market.
AustralianSuper, with around $300 billion under management, has recently built a stake of around five per cent in lithium producer Pilbara Minerals.
"The biggest opportunities for us as investors at AustralianSuper is when the prices are at cycle bottoms," Luke Smith, a senior portfolio manager, told Bloomberg.
He added there now were "lots of opportunities" in nickel, cobalt and graphite as key materials in the energy transition and that lithium and other critical minerals were likely to be "an attractive place to invest" over the next five years.
The sudden evaporation of hype and hot air in the energy transition industry may leave many who plunged into critical minerals in a critical condition.
But it could just help bring some longer term sanity to a market suffering a major dose of madness.