The weekend's Taiwanese presidential election saw the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) retain power.
The DPP, a party that embraces the status quo of an independent Taiwan, faces a tough situation with its big neighbour.
The Taiwanese clearly see themselves as independent in practice, even if this is not declared. This is resulting in irreconcilable visions for the future which China's President Xi Jinping clearly wants resolved in his lifetime.
In his recent New Year's speech, Xi describes how "the reunification of the motherland is a historical inevitability. Compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait should be bound by a common sense of purpose and share in the glory of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation".
This is not to suggest that the election of the DPP means that war is inevitable. But given Xi's determination to absorb the vibrant democracy of Taiwan into the People's Republic, there is likely to be a showdown.
The timing of this will depend on how well Taiwan and its supporters can deter Xi, and Xi's perceptions of US weakness.
In any normal year (although "normal" can be an entirely subjective term), the post-Taiwan election security challenges would be enough to keep strategists in Washington, Canberra and across the western Pacific busy.
But 2024 will be far from normal. Setting aside climate change, there are an array of human security threats present which are trending towards even greater instability in the coming months.
Loading...Ukraine war into its third year
The new year began with Russia stepping up its campaign of missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure and defence industry targets.
Vladimir Putin — who senses an opportunity in American indecision about resourcing and strategy for Ukraine, doubt about the war in the wake of the failed 2023 counteroffensive and facing an election in March — has directed his air and ground forces to step up their offensive action. Having shifted to a strategy of waiting out the West some time ago, Putin believes there is an inevitable and continuing weakening of resolve in Western support for Ukraine.
Consequently, Russia has seized the strategic momentum in the war in both the physical dimensions and in the information sphere.
This is not irreversible, and the Ukrainian determination to defend their nation is unshaken. But the coming year will be decisive in reconstituting Ukrainian forces and keeping the Ukrainian government solvent with Western assistance while Ukraine prepares for future offensives against Russia.
Loading...US strikes in the Middle East
Last week, after warnings about attacks on civil shipping in the crucial Red Sea trading route, the US and the UK conducted a series of strikes against Yemen's Houthis.
The Houthis had exploited the uncertainty in the wake of the October 7 Hamas massacres in southern Israel to fire drones and ballistic missiles at Israel. They then commenced a campaign to attack shipping.
The Houthis have a deep stockpile of drones and missiles, with the demonstrated will and capacity to employ them against targets at sea and on land.
While the US strategic objectives for the recent strikes are likely to be limited to destroying the Houthis' missile and drone capabilities, even this is a significant task that might take days or weeks. And, as always, the enemy gets a vote. The Houthis could further escalate and change the character of this conflict.
Loading...Israel and Gaza situation to get worse
This week, it is 100 days since the appalling Hamas attacks on communities across southern Israel.
The resulting Israeli operations in Gaza continue, albeit at a lower tempo than was the case in the latter parts of 2023.
Israel is coming under greater international criticism for the scope of its Gaza operation and the growing number of civilian deaths. The International Court of Justice case brought against it by South Africa will add additional complexity to this conflict.
Tensions on the Lebanon-Israel border continue to escalate, and the West Bank, increasingly infiltrated with Hezbollah operatives, is also a flashpoint. Israel is now surrounded by what some describe as a ring of fire.
Iran, resourcing the terrorist groups that now operate along Israel's borders, has the capacity to increase the heat being felt by Israel with limited prospects of attacks against it directly.
Add to this political instability in Israel, and the growing civil movement to remove Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and this makes for an extraordinarily unpredictable and combustible situation which is only likely to get worse in the coming months.
Loading...Signs don't point to a positive 2024
What does this mean for the year ahead?
First, besides the tumult of the many national elections to occur in 2024, the year ahead will see an abundance of uncertainty in the international security environment. All the flashpoints described above have the potential to explode and impact on global trade, international relations and the military commitments of many nations. Because of the ambiguity of this situation, other security crises might also arise which we have either not foreseen or have paid insufficient notice to. The multi-level failures of the Israeli government that led to October 7 are a salutary lesson for Western politicians, military and intelligence institutions. A failure to understand our known and potential adversaries, can lead to surprise and catastrophic outcomes.
Second, authoritarians perceive that they have a historic opportunity to shift the balance of power in the world. The shining light on the hill for democracies — the US — is viewed as weakened, internally riven and no longer able to resource a "world's policeman" role. Europe has largely eschewed large standing military institutions and has few high-readiness forces for deployment beyond the continent. This perception of weakness in democracy is provocative. In the coming year, countries like Iran, China, and Russia will continue to exploit this perception of weakness. Australia, a mid-sized nation that is reliant on international trade and security relationships with the US, Japan and others, will be negatively impacted by this deteriorating environment.
Finally, because of this deterioration, the Australian government will need to lift its sights beyond the south Pacific. While tending to the Pacific family is important, this must be balanced with Australia's interests further afield in Asia and beyond. As the world's 13th largest economy, Australia has an interest in protecting the global commons and democratic values, not just in its backyard. In 2024, Australian politicians will need to have very honest and direct conversations with their citizens, not only about cost-of-living pressures but also about "cost of preserving our freedoms" pressures.
The outcome of the current struggle between authoritarians and democracies is far from certain. But current trends in civil discourse, political friction and small defence budgets in democracies don't auger well for a positive 2024.
In a recent article, British strategist James Sherr wrote that "as in the 1930s, feebleness abets cynicism and defeatism …The question today is not whether the West is doing what is required but whether it is capable of doing it".
This is a fine question that Australian politicians and strategists will need to ponder — and answer — in the year ahead.
Mick Ryan is a strategist and retired Australian Army major general. He served in East Timor, Iraq and Afghanistan, and as a strategist on the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff. He is also a non-resident fellow of the Lowy Institute and at the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies.