ASX falls, but Adbri, Link, Tabcorp surge on pre-Christmas mega deals — as it happened

That's it from me as blogmaster for today and until the new year, although I'm sure I'll have a few guest posts to add later this week.

Tomorrow you can enjoy the company of Sam Yang in the morning and Gareth Hutchens through the afternoon.

Looking forward to...

The broader share market had a bit of a "curb your enthusiasm" day, with a majority of the top 200 stocks and most of the industry sectors in the red, but none of the falls were massive.

However, there were some massive gains as corporates rushed to get deals together before the Christmas break.

The big ones today were a $2.1 billion bid for cement maker Adbri (formerly known as Adelaide Brighton) from Ireland's CRH and the Barro family of Victoria, who already own 43% of Adbri.

The bid is pitched at $3.20 a share and Adbri closed up 31% at $2.98.

Link Administration's board has recommended shareholders vote in favour of a $1.2 billion takeover approach from Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking Corporation.

It's pitched at $2.10 a share plus a 16 cent dividend payout, and Link's shares jumped 27% to $2.16.

Tabcorp shares were up after it had its bid to renew its exclusive Victorian betting and wagering licence for another 20 years accepted.

It will pay $600 million upfront and $30 million a year until 2043 and, in return, has had a range of racing industry funding obligations dropped. It's shares jumped 23% to $0.905.

Stockland and Lendlease struck one of those rare deals where the market seemed to conclude that both lost out.

The former is paying the latter up to $1.3 billion for 12 "communities", i.e. housing estates, with almost 28,000 lots.

Stockland was the second biggest loser on the ASX 200 (-3.6% to $4.35), while Lendlease shed 1.2% to $7.42.

Overall, the ASX 200 index finished down 0.2% to 7,426 points.

Biggest gains:

• Neuren Pharmaceuticals +29.5% to $22.20
• Tabcorp Holdings +23.1% to $0.905
• Core Lithium +6.6% to $0.325
• Boss Energy +3.7% to $4.17
• Lovisa Holdings +3.5% to $23.80

Biggest falls:

• PEXA Group -4.2% to $12.12
• Stockland Corporation -3.6% to $4.35
• NRW Holdings -3.3% to $2.90
• Healius -3.3% to $1.46
• Weebit Nano -3.1% to $4.44

The Insurance Council of Australia (ICA) has today declared the flooding associated with Tropical Cyclone Jasper a "significant event".

The ICA's chief operating officer, Kylie Macfarlane, says the declaration should speed up claims processes.

"The insurance industry is committed to supporting customers impacted by flooding and storm damage following Tropical Cyclone Jasper. This significant event declaration activates additional services and resources to ensure timely and efficient assistance," she notes in a statement.

"If your property has been impacted, please contact your insurer as soon as possible to commence the claims process, even if you do not know the full extent of damage."

The ICA says the event may still be further upgraded to "insurance catastrophe" if there is a significant increase in claims numbers or complexity.

The ICA says its members are preparing to send teams onto the ground in affected areas as soon as transport access is restored and it is safe to do so.

Thanks Rob for the lovely feedback.

We're genuinely glad that we're providing a service you find valuable, interesting and informative.

We plan to keep doing so on all the days the ASX is open (basically any day that isn't a public holiday), so keep clicking in.

The caveat is that our already small team will be particularly thin for a couple of weeks over Christmas and New Year's, so there's always a chance the blog might be out for a day or two if illness strikes those who are holding the fort.

Link Administration Holdings (Link Group) shares have surged nearly 28% to $2.165 after Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking Corporation made a $1.2 billion takeover bid for the market registry service and administrator of financial ownership data.

Link Group shareholders are set to receive $2.10 cash per share under the scheme of arrangement, along with a 16 cent dividend franked at 25%, if they vote to approve the deal.

Factoring in around $900 million of borrowings by Link, the deal implies a total enterprise value of approximately $2.1 billion.

The takeover offer is a 33% premium to Link's closing price on Friday, a 52.8% premium to the average price over the past month, and nearly a two-thirds premium to the average price over the past three months.

Link's directors have recommended shareholders vote in favour of the offer in the absence of a superior proposal.

An interesting note from Marcel Thieliant at Capital Economics about the outlook for consumer spending.

Despite strong population growth, he expects household consumption growth in Australia to remain weak, growing at just 0.8 per cent, when adjusted for inflation.

That means consumption per person would continue falling sharply.

But it would be a lot worse if we didn't have so much accumulated savings from the pandemic period.

"Consumption growth has held up rather well in light of the recent sharp fall in real household disposable income," wrote Thieliant.

"According to our calculations, the 4.3% annual plunge in real disposable income last quarter marked the sharpest fall in four decades."

He says Australians are estimated to have built up some of the largest savings buffers of any advanced economy during the pandemic.

And we're drawing on those savings now to prop up our standard of living as our real incomes have plunged.

Moreover, he reckons we can afford to keep doing that for some time yet.

"Given that the household savings rate only fell below its pre-pandemic average at the end of last year, excess savings haven't diminished much yet and we think they will only be depleted by end-2025," he forecast.

However, that doesn't mean Thieliant is expecting Aussies to go on a spending spree, even as their real incomes start rising again in 2024.

"With housing affordability now the most stretched since the early-1990s, it seems unlikely that house prices will continue to outpace incomes," he argues.

"The upshot is that households can't let their houses do the saving for them and will be less willing to tolerate very low savings rates than they did before the global financial crisis [when savings rates were briefly negative].

"Accordingly, we suspect that growth in spending will start to fall short of growth in incomes next year, which will result in a renewed rise in the household savings rate."

• ASX 200: -0.5% to 7,409 points (live values below)
• Australian dollar: +0.1 to 67.04 US cents
• Nikkei: -1.1% to 32,621 points
• Hang Seng: -0.8% to 16,658 points
• Shanghai: +0.2% to 2,948 points
• S&P 500: Flat at 4,719 points
• Nasdaq: +0.4% to 14,814 points
• FTSE: -1% to 7,576 points
• EuroStoxx: Flat at 477 points
• Spot gold: +0.2% to $US2,021/ounce
• Brent crude: +0.5% to $US76.91/barrel
• Iron ore: -1.1% to $US132.60/tonne
• Bitcoin: -3.2% to $US40,870
• US 10-year bond: +1bp to 3.93%

Prices current at approximately 1:50pm AEDT

Live updates on the major ASX indices:

Tabcorp shares are up by almost 25% to $0.9125 after the company was granted a 20-year extension to its Victorian wagering and betting licence by the state government.

The exclusive licence commences from August 2024 and includes no racing industry joint venture or funding obligations, which Tabcorp says levels the playing field with other rival betting agencies.

However, Tabcorp says it expects to agree transition arrangements with the Victorian Racing Industry, including $15 million of additional funding for each of the first three years of the new licence.

Tabcorp says, had the new licence terms applied in the previous financial year, its pre-tax and interest earnings would have been $140 million higher.

Tabcorp will make an upfront licence payment of $600 million in June 2024 and $30 million per year of ongoing fixed payments from August 2025 to 2043.

The ASX is still trading lower, down 0.5% to 7,408 points as of 1:15pm AEDT.

(For live figures at any time, head to the top of the blog).

After setting a 50-day high last week, real estate stocks are dragging the ASX down after comments by New York Federal Reserve boss John Williams over the weekend, who said it was too soon to be discussing interest rate cuts.

Naturally, financial markets have reacted strongly to that pessimistic news here after last week's optimism, and it's flowed through to rates-sensitive real estate stocks, too.

Looking at the sectors, real estate has fallen the most (-0.9%), followed by consumer staples (-0.7%), energy (-0.5%) and telecommunications (-0.5%).

Financial, utilities, materials, industrials and information technology sectors are all lower too.

The only sectors in positive territory are consumer discretionary (+0.5%) and health care (+0.3%).

Looking at the best performers for the day:

• Tabcorp +24.5%
• Neuren Pharmaceuticals +22.1%
• Core Lithium +3.3%
• Fletcher Building +3.1%
• Lovisa +2.4%

And the worst performers so far today:

• NRW Holdings -3.2%
• IDP Education -3.1%
• Stockland -3.1%
• Genesis Minerals -3.1%
• Chalice Mining -2.8%

An update this morning on the fiery takeover bid for an Australian-listed West African gold explorer launched by a Hong Kong company.

Zhaojin Capital has been trying to woo Tietto Minerals, which works on projects in Cote d'Ivoire and Liberia.

But the Australian miner has pushed back and urged its shareholders to reject the $629 million offer, claiming it undervalues the company.

This morning in a sharply-worded Supplementary Bidder's Statement to shareholders, Zhaojin said the mining company had "consistently failed to meet production guidance" and questioned the value of the company.

"We express our overall disappointment that the Tietto Board has decided not to recommend that Tietto Shareholders accept Zhaojin Capital's Offer. We believe the Offer represents an attractive, certain exit price, which Tietto Shareholders should consider against several key points that call into question the Target's Statement's view on the value of Tietto."

Tietto shares were down 2% to $0.6175 around the middle of today's trading session and are down from a recent peak of $0.86 in January this year, but up from a low point of 30 cents in early October.

Watch this space.

ASX-listed Neuren Pharmaceuticals is the leader among the top 200 companies, surging almost 25% to $21.38, after releasing an update on clinical trials for its catchily named drug NNZ-2591.

This drug is in phase 2 development with hopes of treating some rare but very serious neurodevelopmental disorders.

The latest results come from a trial of NNZ-2591 among 18 children in the US with Phelan-McDermid syndrome (PMS), where a deletion or other change in a part of chromosome 22 affects the SHANK3 gene that codes for a protein that supports the structure of brain synapses.

The company says people with the condition typically exhibit severe developmental and intellectual impairment, including delayed or absent speech, symptoms of autism, low muscle tone, motor delays, epilepsy, difficulties with toilet training and problems with eating.

Neuren has reported that the drug was "well tolerated and demonstrated a good safety profile", while both caregivers and clinicians reported "clinically meaningful" improvements across a range of measures in the vast majority of trial patients.

From a business perspective, the company said approximately 1% of people with autism have a SHANK3 mutation, meaning there are likely to be around 160,000 potential patients across the US, Europe, Japan, urban China, Brazil, Israel, South Korea, New Zealand and Australia.

The company hopes the same drug will also prove useful in the treatment of three other even rarer conditions — Pitt Hopkins, Angelman and Prader-Willi.

This is a very sad story from Emilia Terzon of investors who lost all their retirement savings after being encouraged to set up self-managed super funds (SMSFs) run by a man who is now facing lengthy jail time after pleading guilty to multiple financial crimes.

But this particular case is far from unique, with the deputy chair of corporate and financial regulator ASIC Sarah Court recently warning that risky investment schemes and outright scams were on the rise and targeting superannuation savings.

"People are rolling their life savings over into things they think are investments," she said.

"Particularly – increasingly so – in the superannuation area where people are being tricked to rolling their entire superannuation savings out of a retail fund into a so-called self-managed super fund that's in the name of a criminal."

ACCC deputy chair Catriona Lowe told the same forum that "there is a scam for everyone".

"We need to move the dialogue away from, 'How can people be so stupid.'"

It's not a short read, but it is an excellent and very important one, well worth finding five or 10 minutes for.

ABC investigative business journalist Adele Ferguson — so nice to have you on deck at Aunty — has penned an important analysis about the wild west of online trading, not just in shares but in much riskier financial products like CFDs (contracts for difference) and cryptocurrencies.

"The brutal reality is some of these products are more like gambling products and should be promoted as such," she warns.

"When retail investors use their retirement savings to invest in risky products in an attempt to make money, it amplifies the possibility of financial disaster.

"Add in weak compliance and evidence that some operators pool client money, the risks expand exponentially."

Read Adele's column in full on our website.

Our senior business correspondent Peter Ryan has taken a look at what we can expect tomorrow when the Reserve Bank releases the minutes of its latest meeting.

The board left the cash rate on hold at 4.35% two weeks ago and tomorrow we will learn a little more about the thinking behind that decision. Economists will be looking for clues as to whether the RBA will hike rates again or keep them on hold when it meets again in February.

You can listen to Peter's analysis via X:

Or via Soundcloud directly.

• ASX 200: -0.3% to 7,418 points (live values below)
• Australian dollar: Flat at 66.99 US cents
• S&P 500: Flat at 4,719 points
• Nasdaq: +0.4% to 14,814 points
• FTSE: -1% to 7,576 points
• EuroStoxx: Flat at 477 points
• Spot gold: Flat at $US2,019/ounce
• Brent crude: +0.8% to $US77.15/barrel
• Iron ore: -1.1% to $US132.60/tonne
• Bitcoin: -1.5% to $US41,596
• US 10-year bond: -1bp to 3.91%

Prices current at approximately 10:20am AEDT

Live updates on the major ASX indices:

Good morning. I'll be joining Nadia on the blog this morning and staying with you to the end of the trading day.

There has been a widespread, but not violent, pullback on the ASX in early trade, following a subdued session on Wall Street on Friday.

Out of the top 200 companies, 143 were lower in early trade, but few of the falls were large.

Overall, the ASX 200 was off 0.5% by 10:13am AEDT to 7,408 points.

Real estate, education, consumer staples and financials led the declines, but all the industry groups on the ASX were down.

Biggest gains:

• Neuren Pharmaceuticals: +28.1% to $21.955
• Tabcorp Holdings +16% to $0.8525
• Fletcher Building +2.1% to $4.42
• Boral +1.6% to $5.05
• Iress Ltd +1.6% to $7.985

Biggest falls:

• Genesis Minerals -3.3% to $1.735
• West African Resources -3.2% to $0.905
• Stockland Corporation -3.1% to $4.37
• De Grey Mining -3% to $1.295
• Ramelius Resources -2.6% to $1.6225

• ASX SPI 200 futures: -0.6% to 7414 points
• Australian dollar: 67.05 US cents
• On Wall St: Dow -0.2%, S&P 500 flat, Nasdaq +0.4% 
• In Europe: Stoxx50 flat, FTSE -0.9%, DAX flat
• Spot gold: - 0.10% at $US2020/ounce
• Brent crude: -0.1% at $US76.55/barrel
• Iron ore: -1.10% at $US132.6/tonne
• Bitcoin: -0.96% at $US41,803
• US 10-year bond: -1% 

(Prices current at approximately 10am AEDT) 

Good morning, it's Monday December 18 and welcome to the ABC's live markets blog, where we’re on the home stretch to the end of the year.

There was a subdued close on Wall Street so the local sharemarket is poised to open lower today with the ASX SPI 200 futures down one per cent.

On Friday New York Federal Reserve president John Williams said it was too early to start thinking about interest rate cuts and that it was “premature” to be thinking about easing at the Fed’s March meeting.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended a tenth of a per cent higher, the S&P 500 closed flat and the tech heavy Nasdaq finished a third of a per cent higher.

Oil is up, gold is down and the Australian dollar is lower, trading at 66.9 US cents.