There's a Chinese phrase that's a fitting description of the current dynamic between China and Australia — trying to steal a chicken, but instead losing a handful of rice.
In other words, losing something within your grasp by overreaching.
Simmering trade disputes and the arrest of two Australian citizens in China, at a time when diplomatic tensions were at their most frigid, once served Beijing's "wolf warrior" diplomacy tactics.
But years later, Beijing could be paying for the cost of those decisions, as they cast a shadow of doubt over a possible visit to China by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese this year.
This week, Australia's Foreign Minister Penny Wong met China's top diplomat Wang Yi for the fourth time in a year, at the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Summit in Jakarta.
The focus of the meeting was the most important item on Wang's to-do list — confirming Albanese's visit to China.
Wong did not confirm the visit, amid questions about whether China is setting the right conditions ahead of such a trip.
"The prime minister has been invited to Beijing. We would hope for the most positive circumstances for such a visit," she said.
"My view is we're seeing some progress on trade. We would like to see more.
"In relation to the Australians detained, I think China is well aware of the priority Australia places on movements there and that's why the prime minister and I have continued to raise those particular cases in our interactions with our counterparts."
Australian citizens Cheng Lei and Yang Hengjun have been detained in China for more than two years, in addition to two other Australian citizens — one given a death sentence, the other life in prison — on drugs charges.
The complexity of Yang's case lies in the fact that he worked for China's Ministry of State Security before he became an Australian citizen, and China has refused to recognise his Australian citizenship.
Cheng Lei's case has made little progress in the past two years, and has been described as an example of "hostage diplomacy" by many human rights lawyers in China.
This concept has been Beijing's longstanding practice against Western countries.
However, as Cheng's detention in China approaches the three-year mark, there are increasing signs that Beijing is also facing consequences over the arbitrary detention of the Australian citizen.
The fate of Cheng Lei
More than a year after Cheng's closed-door trial, she is still waiting for a verdict. Without the closure of a sentence, her release remains unlikely.
Many Australians might be hoping Albanese could bring Cheng on his plane back to Australia, but it's more likely that any resolution in her case will be quietly worked out and kept under wraps.
This is because China's legal system follows "rule by law" with Chinese characteristics, which means the law serves the regime.
In other words, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) can override the legal system.
Li Shixiang, a human rights activist who has helped with the case of one Singaporean death row inmate in China, said the court might be still trying to find evidence to support the national security charges, or it could be weighing up the sentence based on the state of relations between Canberra and Beijing.
The judicial system can also resort to arbitrary detentions of foreign nationals and even increase sentences on appeal.
But on the positive side, it means that the interaction between high-level dignitaries can ultimately be effective in securing a prisoner's release.
Li said due to the vague and broad definition of a state secret, Cheng's case could be a "pocket crime" — a term for prosecuting dissent.
"The Chinese judicial system is a political weapon, and people in the judicial system must be loyal to the party," he said.
"Foreigners can become diplomatic hostages, it's a tactic in China's diplomacy.
"Those cases were resolved by diplomacy, not by law."
But under President Xi Jinping, a superpower will never bow to a middle power.
The changing face of Chinese diplomacy
The warming of Australia-China relations comes at one of the most extraordinary moments in the country's history, when Xi demolished presidential term limits and became president for life.
Not only has it shattered the world's illusion that China would embrace democracy as it moves towards prosperity, but it has also created a huge trust deficit between China and the West.
Such a reality presents a huge headwind for Xi's efforts to realise the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and to exert more significant influence in global affairs.
Coupled with the outcry from the Chinese people and even within the CCP over the systematic regression in the political arena, Xi desperately needs to legitimise his regime by engaging world leaders after three years of COVID-zero policy.
Australia plays a key role in Xi's vision, laying the groundwork for a repair of diplomatic relations between China and the United States, and for improved interactions between China and the West more broadly.
But the difference between pragmatic democratic governments and idealist authoritarian regimes is that while China would see Albanese's visit as a symbolic moment to begin resetting the relationship, Australia might want to see more concrete assurances before agreeing to the visit.
The delay in finalising Albanese's visit to China may hurt Beijing's reputation, and the answer is still pending for China's application to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
Australia has a veto vote, which may concern Beijing after an ugly few years on the trade front, while Taiwan is also vying for a spot in this partnership — something China wants to avoid.
Chinese diplomats are adopting a sycophantic posture not seen in nearly a decade, in a departure from the wolf-warrior diplomacy. But for Xi, taking a step forward before Australia moves would mean a loss of face.
Trade barriers can be dismantled, and political differences set aside, but the ongoing detention of Australian citizens cannot be easily ignored.
Fixing such disputes is nothing new for China.
When Canada released Meng Wanzhou, Huawei's former chief financial officer, China immediately put two Canadian detainees on a plane back as an exchange.
Two Chinese Americans, Cynthia Liu and Victor Liu, who had been banned from leaving China, also managed to return home the next day.
Their lawyer Marc Ginsberg said that the release of the two American citizens had been facilitated by a phone call between Xi and US President Joe Biden.
Today, diplomatic hostages are not only a blight for Beijing, but also potentially harmful to China's claimed sovereignty and trade interests.
Chinese diplomats might have already learned a hard lesson from the short-sighted wolf-warrior era – they may have shot themselves in the foot in the long term.
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